下面是小编为大家整理的美国汽车与汽车零部件：重启汽车之路,供大家参考。
al n
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I
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tr s
Re
F OC US
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
27
A p r il
2020
U.S.
Aut os
&
Aut o
P a rt s
Rocky
roa d
t o
restart ing
a utos
F r om
sur v iva l
t o
r es t a r t ing .
W i th
g ove r nor s
w ar m i ng
to
easi ng
l ockdown
re s tri c ti on s , an d
s om e
s i gn s
of
g ree n
s h o ots
i n
both
U . S .
li gh t
v e h i c le
s ale s
an d
po st- l ockdown Ch i n a
auto
s ale s ,
a t
s om e
poin t
th e
f o c u s
o f
th e
i ndu s try
will
s h i f t
f r om
s u r v i v al
to re s tarti ng .
I n
th i s
note ,
w e
exa m i n e
both
th e
s u pp ly
an d
deman d
ang le s
of
re s tarti ng th e
North
Am eri c an
auto
i n d u s try .
W h ile
w e
are
i n c reasi ng ly
c om for ta b le
on
th e deman d
s i de
w i th
ou r
pr i or
2 Q 20
e s ti m ate
for
U S
s ale s
( 9 . 7
mn
SAAR) ,
w e
are
mor e c au ti ou s
on
th e
s u pp ly
s i d e
to
r amp
u p
d elay s .
W e
n ow
s ee
2 Q
NA
pr odu c ti on
dow n
~7 0 %
y / y
(v s
40 %
pr i or ) .
M or e ove r ,
w e
c ou l d
s ee
fu r th er
do w n s i de
ri sk
to
F
an d
G M ’s pr odu c ti on ,
as
h eal th
c on c er n s
m ay
pr om pt
th e
U A W
to
d elay
pr odu c ti on
re s tar t
later than
n on - un i o n
O E M s
s u c h
as
Te s la
an d
t r an s plan ts .
Be t w ee n
F
an d
G M ,
G M
m ay
b e able
to
r amp
two
of
i ts
key
p l an ts
f as t er
( M e xic o
an d
Ar li ngton
TX )
than
c an
For d. O v erall ,
w e
pr e f er
s u pp lier s
w h o
are
le ss
e xpose d
to
th e
De t r o i t
3
an d
mor e
e xpos e d
to Ch i n a
( w h i c h
i s
re b ou nding )
–
h e n c e
APTV
on
th e
lar g er - c ap
s i de
( ~2 3 %
D - 3
e xposu re ) an d
Adi e n t
on
th e
s m aller - c ap
s i de
( 27 %
D - 3 ,
bu t
w i th
a
lar g e
Ch i n a
bu s i n e ss
an d e xposu re
i n
NA
to
tr an s plan t
O E M s ) .
Sup p ly
s id e
m or e
c h a llengin g
t h a n
inv es t or s
believe ,
e s p ec ia lly
for
F
a n d
GM .
W e th i n k
i n v e s tor s
m ay
b e
unde re s ti m ati ng
th e
s u pp ly
s i de
c h alle ng e s
i n
North
Am eri c a, w h i c h
m ay
not
s ee
as
s m ooth
a
pr o du c t i on
re b ou n d
as
in
Ch i n a.
Factor s
th at
i mpe d e
a s m ooth
r amp
i n c l ude
th e
c om pl exity
of
th e
s u p pl y
c h ai n ,
th e
pol iti c al
s ta n c e
of
v ari ou s key
g ove r nor s
tow ar d
easi ng
l ockdown s
( not
w i th s ta nding
Fe de ral
gu i d eli n e s e n c ou r aging
auto
pr odu c ti on
as
a
c riti c al
ac ti v ity ) ,
un c ertai n ty
ar ou n d
th e
s ta tu s
of M e xican
pa r ts
an d
v e h i c le
as s e mb ly
plan ts ,
th e
pot e n tial
at - ri sk
h eal th
s ta tu s
of
a t
lea st s om e
of
th e
Bi g
Th ree
un i on i ze d
w o r kf or c e ,
an d
th e
n ee d
for
li qu i di ty
for
t r ou b le d s u pp lier s
( s om e
of
w h i c h
c ou l d
b e
m e t
b y
Fe de ral
l oan s
to
th e
De tr oit
Th ree ) .
Dem a n d
si d e
h owev er
bet t er
t h a n
fea r ed .
Apr il
i s
tr ac kin g
to
~7 mn
SAAR,
b e tt er
than w e
had
f eare d,
w i th
th e n
s om e
poten tial
i m p r ove m e n t
i n
c om i ng
m on th s
as
l ockdown s ease
( e s p e c ially
i n
s tate s
key
for
pi c ku p
s ale s )
an d
d ealer s
b e c om e
mor e
ad e pt
at
w e b - b ase d
s ale s
an d
c on ta c tle ss
d eli v ery .
N e v er th ele ss ,
w e
c on ti nu e
to
not
e xpe c t
a
V - s hap e d
re c ove ry
for
d e man d
un le ss
a
‘ c as h
for
c l un ker s’
p r og r am
pr ovi de s
a
boost ( w h i c h ,
g i v e n
th e
s u pp ly
c on s trai n ts ,
m ay
not
happen
a s
s oon
as
s om e
th i n k) .
F ed er a l
r ole
– c oor d ina t ion ,
not
jus t
ca s h .
G i v e n
th e
above ,
w e
s ee
th ree
areas
w h ere Fe de ral
i n v olv e m e n t
c ou l d
b e
h el pfu l :
on
th e
s u pp ly
s i de ,
to
h el p
di st re ss e d
s u pp lier s w i th
c as h
( likely
b y
w ay
of
th e
O E M s )
an d
to
w or k
w i th
s tate s ,
M e xic o
an d
Canad a
to fac ilitate
th e
s u pp ly
c h ai n
an d ,
at
s om e
poin t
( later
rat h er
th a n
s oon er ) ,
pe r hap s
a
C as h for
C l un ker s
to
re b oot
d e man d.
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
Au t o s
&
Au t o
Par t s
NE U TRAL
Unc hang e d
U . S .
Au t o s
&
Au t o
Par t s Br ia n
A.
J o hnso n
+ 1
212
526
5627
b r i an. a. j o hn s on@ b a r c lays . co m BC I,
US
S te v e n
H e mp el ,
C F A
+ 1
312
609
7260
ste v e n. he mp el @ b a r c lays . co m BC I,
US
Jas o n
S t uhl d r e he r
+ 1
312
609
8183
Jas o n. S t uhl d r e he r @ b a r c lays . co m BC I,
US
Bar c lay s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
do e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
do
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v ere d
i n
i ts
re s ear c h
re po r ts .
A s
a
re s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w are
t h a t
t h e f ir m
m ay
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t ere st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
re po r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d er
t h i s
re po r t
a s
o n ly
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h eir
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S CL O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
17 .
R ocky
r oa d
to
restart ing
auto s
in
N o rt h
A merica
W i th
at
lea st
s om e
g ov er nor s
w ar m i ng
to
easi ng
l ockdown
re s tri c ti o n s ,
an d
s om e
s i gn s
of g ree n
s hoots
i n
both
U . S .
li gh t
v e h i c le
s ale s
an d
pos t- l oc kdo w n
Ch i n a
auto
s ale s ,
at
s om e poin t
th e
f oc u s
of
th e
i ndu s try
w ill
s h i f t
f r om
s u r v i v al
to
re s tarti ng .
Sup p ly
s id e
m or e
c h a llengin g
t h a n
inv es t or s
believe .
W e
th i n k
i n v e s tor s
m ay
b e unde re s ti m ati ng
th e
s u pp ly
s i de
c h alle ng e s
i n
No r th
Am eri c a,
w h i c h
m ay
not
s ee
as s m ooth
a
pr odu c ti on
re b ou n d
as
di d
Ch i n a.
Factor s
th at
i mpe d e
a
s m ooth
r amp
i n c l ude th e
c om pl exity
of
th e
s u p pl y
c h ai n ,
th e
pol iti c al
s ta n c e
of
v ari ou s
key
g ove r nor s
tow ar d easi ng
l ockdown s
( not
w i th s ta nding
Fe de ral
gu i d eli n e s
e n c ou r aging
auto
pr odu c ti on
as a
c riti c al
ac ti v ity ) ,
un c ertai n ty
ar ou n d
th e
s ta tu s
of
M e xican
pa r ts
an d
v e h i c le
as s e mb ly plan ts ,
th e
pot e n tial
at - ri sk
h eal th
s ta tu s
of
a t
lea st
s om e
o f
th e
Bi g
Th ree
un i on i ze d w or kf or c e ,
an d
th e
n ee d
for
li qu i di ty
for
tr ou b le d
s u pp lier s
( s o m e
of
w h i c h
c ou l d
b e
m e t b y
Fe de ral
l oan s
to
th e
De t r oit
Th ree ) .
D em a n d
s id e
h owev er
bet t er
t h a n
fea r ed .
Apr il
i s
t r ac kin g
to
~7 mn
SAAR,
b e tt er
than we
had
f eare d ,
w i th
th e n
s om e
poten tial
i mpr ove m e n t
i n
c om i ng
m on t h s
as
l ockdown s ease
an d
de aler s
b e c om e
m o re
ad e pt
at
w e b - b ase d
s ale s
an d
c on ta c tle ss
de li v ery . Ne v er th ele ss ,
w e
c on ti nu e
to
not
e xpe c t
a
V -s hap e d
re c ove ry
for
deman d
un le ss
a
‘ c as h for
c l un k er s’
pr og r am
p r ovi d e s
a
boost
( w h i c h ,
g i v e n
th e
s u pp ly
c on s trai n ts ,
m ay
not happen
as
s oon
a s
s om e
th i n k ) .
F ed er a l
r ole
– c oor d ina t ion ,
not
ju s t
ca s h .
G i v e n
th e
abov e ,
w e
s ee
th ree
areas
w h ere Fe de ral
i n v olv e m e n t
c ou l d
b e
h el pfu l :
on
th e
s u pp ly
s i de ,
t o
h e p
di st re ss e d
s u pp lier s w i th
c as h
( likely
b y
w ay
of
th e
O E M s )
an d
to
w or k
w i th
s ta t e s ,
M e xic o
an d
Canad a
to fac ilitate
th e
s u pp ly
c h ai n
an d ,
at
s om e
poin t
( later
rat h er
th a n
s oon er ) ,
p er hap s
a
C as h for
C l un ker s
to
re b oot
d e man d.
W i th
Ap ril
SAAR
tr ac kin g
to
7 . 3mn
un i ts ,
w e
are
i n c reasi ng ly
c om for ta b le
w i th
ou r
pr i or 2 Q 20
e s ti m ate
for
U S
s ale s
( 9 . 7
mn
SAAR) ,
w h i c h
w ou l d
n ee d
M ay
an d
Ju n e
to
aver age 10 . 9mn
un i ts .
H ow e v er ,
w e
are
mor e
c au ti ou s
on
NA
pr od u c ti on
du e
to
r amp
u p
de lay s . W e
n ow
s ee
2 Q
NA
p r odu c ti on
dow n
~7 0 %
(v s
40 %
pr i o r ) .
FI GU R E
1
P ot en t ia l
p a t h
t o
2Q 20 SA A R
of 9.7mn
S AA R
un i t s
mn
12.0 FI GU R E
2
NA
p r oduc t io n
– p r ior v s .
r ev is ed
(un it s
m n )
2 Q 20 E
2020E
Pri o r
R e vis e d
Pri o r
R e vis e d
U n i t s
mn
2.5 1.4 14.0
12.2 y / y
%
- 41 %
- 68 %
- 14 %
- 25 %
Apr i l
M ay
J un e
Sour c e:
B a r c la y s
Resea r c h
esti m ates
Sour c e:
B a r c la y s
Resea r c h
esti m ates
9.8 7.3
M or e ove r ,
w e
c ou l d
s ee
fu r th er
dow n s i d e
ri sk
to
F
an d
G M
pr odu c ti on ,
as
th e
U AW
m ay de lay
pr odu c ti on
re s tar t
i nto
late
M ay
or
b ey on d,
later
than
n on - un i on
O E M s
s u c h
as
Te s la an d
tra n s p l an ts ,
w h i c h
c ou l d
s tar t
as
early
as
M ay
4 .
Be tw ee n
F
an d
G M ,
G M
m ay
b e
abl e to
r amp
t w o
of
i ts
key
plan ts
f a s ter
( M e xic o
an d
Ar li ngton
TX )
than
c an
For d.
O v erall ,
w e
pr e f er
s u pp lier s
w h o
are
le ss
e xpos e d
to
th e
D etr oit
3
an d
mor e
e xpo s e d
to Ch i n a
( w h i c h
i s
re b ou nding ) ,
h e n c e
APTV
on
th e
lar g er - c ap
s i de
( ~2 3 %
D - 3
e xpo s u re )
an d Adi e n t
on
th e
s m aller - c ap
s i d e
( 27 %
D - 3 ,
bu t
w i th
a
lar g e
Ch i n a
bu s i n e ss
an d
...
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